Sportz Assassin's FINAL Bubble Watch - March 13

Okay. I've been doing my whole Sportz' Bubble Watch for a few years now and I think it is time to start back up. With only a few weeks left in the season before conference tournaments, let's see how the bubble looks.

So, here are my locks ... yes, by conference. The ones in green are spot on, no doubt locks. The ones in blue are pretty much in, too, though they can't afford to go in a tailspin. The ones in orange are smack dab on the bubble but would be in if the selections were being made today. Every team in red are on the wrong side of the bubble right now and would miss the dance.

I figure there are 18 conferences who are one-bid leagues and 13 conferences that could net multiple bids. So who should be going?

ATLANTIC COAST: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College.
Clemson and Virginia Tech got big wins in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid. Boston College's rough showing in the quarterfinals knocks them out.

BIG EAST: UConn, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette.
Big East's 11 teams in the tournament is insane. But they all deserve to be there. But are any of them a championship team?

BIG TEN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Penn State.
I think Penn State gets in (ed. note: the Big Ten championship game is currently in progress) regardless of what happens today. Michigan and Illinois scoot in as well.

BIG XII: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor, Oklahoma State.
Colorado is one of those last four in and will most likely sweat out Selection Sunday. Everybody else is pretty much set.

PAC-10: Washington, Arizona, UCLA, USC, Washington State.
I don't think USC makes it. I feel that they needed to get to the Pac-10 championship game to at least have a shot at the NCAAs. Washington State just hasn't done enough.

SEC: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia.
Alabama, to me, is THE ultimate bubble team. I have them in instead of USC, but many have them out. Georgia lost to Bama in the SEC tournament which eliminates them.

MOUNTAIN WEST: San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico.
Really no surprises here. SDSU and BYU will be big time seeds while UNLV is securely in.

A-10: Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Richmond didn't mess around and claimed a bid for themselves. That win means one less spot for another bubble team.

COLONIAL: Old Dominion, George Mason, VCU.
C-USA: Memphis, UAB, UTEP.
MVC: Indiana State, Missouri State.
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Memphis' Conference USA championship pops their bubble in a good way. Really, in all of these schools, only UAB and Missouri State need to sweat. St. Mary's may be worried as well. I only think St. Mary's gets in out of that group ... though their resume is a bit suspect.

ONE BID LEAGUES (18):
America East (Boston),
Atlantic Sun (Belmont),
Big Sky (No Colorado),
Big South (UNC-Ashville),
Big West (UC-Santa Barbara),
Horizon (Butler),
Ivy (Princeton),
MAAC (St Peter's),
MAC (Akron),
MEAC (Hampton),
Northeast (Long Island),
Ohio Valley (Morehead State),
Patriot (Bucknell),
Southern (Wofford),
Southland (Tx-San Antonio),
SWAC (Alabama State),
Summit (Oakland),
Sun Belt (Ark-Little Rock).
WAC (Utah State)

Let's Keep Our Mouth Guards IN Out Mouths, M'kay?

Mouth guards have been all the rage in the NBA over the last couple of years. What was once used by only a few of the big bangers underneath has become the must need accessory in the League.

Back in my day (1990s), wristbands were the thing. Except you had them everywhere but your wrists. Usually they were a lot higher up on the arm. We've seen the sleeves come en vogue as well as those pads that protect the ribs. Naturally, mouth guards would be next. I have only one problem with that, though.

KEEP THE MOUTH GUARD IN YOUR MOUTH!!!!!

There is nothing better to watch than NBA players leaving their mouth guards hanging out of their mouths. We have the subtle hang. There is also the end-of-the-guard-in-the-mouth trick. Some actually touch the guard and take it completely out of their mouth.

I get that mouth guards aren't comfortable. If they were, everyone would be wearing them. I understand that during the down time of a game, you want to take it out and a basketball uniform doesn't really lend many places to store it. Football players can hang it in their facemasks or leave it dangling on a strap. Hoops guys have it tougher.

So I'll make a deal with you: Kill the halfway chew-a-thon on your mouthpiece and you may take it out with your hand to hold on to it.

Stop With the "ACC Sucks" Chants

Is the ACC down? Yeah a bit. Ever since the league expanded from 9 to 12 teams several years ago, the league hasn't been as deep with solid teams as they've had before. Certainly this isn't the ACC of the 1980s or 1990s where there were 3 or 4 really, really good teams each year.

But stop it with the "ACC sucks" chants. The ACC has held its own.

After all, what conference have the last two National Champions come from? That's right, the ACC. And since 2001, what conference has won 5 of the 10 championships in that time frame? Yep, it is the ACC.

The Big East and SEC have two each. The Big XII has one.

How about since 1988? Yep, the ACC has won 8 National Championships (they've also won 10 titles since 1982). The only years since 1988 when there wasn't an ACC team in the Final Four? 1996, 2003, 2006 and 2007. That's it. In the last 23 years, there have only been four Final Fours that didn't contain one ACC team. In fact, in 1990, 1991, 2001 and 2004, two ACC teams made it to the Final Four. So in 23 years, 23 times an ACC team made it to the Final Four.

Over the last 12 years (since 1999), an ACC team has been in the championship game 7 different times. Duke (3), North Carolina (2), Georgia Tech (1) and Maryland (1).

Everyone is on the Big East's bandwagon. But did you know that the last time a Big East team made it to the NCAA Championship game was back in 2004 when UConn beat Georgia Tech for the title? In that same time span, the Horizon League, Conference USA and the Colonial Athletic Association have each sent a team to the title game.

That last Big East title appearance was a season after Syracuse won it with Carmelo Anthony. Add in UConn's 1999 title and the Big East have won just three championships over the last 25 years.

Look, the Big East is ... top to bottom ... a beast of a league. Every week there are a bunch of games between ranked teams. But to say that the ACC is done or isn't in the elite status as before ... well, you haven't been paying much attention to the last weekend of the season.

Let's RPI the NCAA Tournament

Here is what the NCAA Tournament would look like if we just used the top 68 teams of the RPI (as of Saturday March 5th):

MIDWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio)
1-Kansas vs 16-Virginia Tech/17-Miami (Tulsa)
8-Cincinnati vs 9-Tennessee (Tulsa)
4-Syracuse vs 13-Marshall (Denver)
5-Arizona vs 12-St Mary's (Denver)
2-Notre Dame vs 15-VCU (Chicago)
7-Vanderbilt vs 10-Memphis (Chicago)
3-Purdue vs 14-Clemson (Chicago)
6-George Mason vs 11-Illinois (Chicago)

EAST REGIONAL (Newark)
1-Ohio State vs 16-Gonzaga/17-Oakland (Cleveland)
8-Villanova vs 9-Missouri (Cleveland)
4-West Virginia vs 13-So Miss (Washington)
5-Kansas State vs 12-Florida State (Washington)
2-North Carolina vs 15-UTEP (Charlotte)
7-UNLV vs 10-Boston College (Charlotte)
3-Georgetown vs 14-Belmont (Tampa)
6-UConn vs 11-Butler (Tampa)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim)
1-BYU vs 16-Minnesota/17-Marquette (Denver)
8-Texas A&M vs 9-UCLA (Denver)
4-Texas vs 13-Princeton (Tuscon)
5-Utah State vs 12-Michigan State (Tuscon)
2-Pitt vs 15-Penn State (Cleveland)
7-Old Dominion vs 10-Missouri State (Cleveland)
3-Florida vs 14-Richmond (Tampa)
6-St. John's vs 11-Colorado St (Tampa)

SOUTH REGIONAL (New Orleans)
1-San Diego St vs 16-Wichita State/17-Cal (Tuscon)
8-Temple vs 9-Harvard (Tuscon)
4-Wisconsin vs 13-Michigan (Tulsa)
5-Louisville vs 12-Washington (Tulsa)
2-Duke vs 15-Oklahoma St (Charlotte)
7-UAB vs 10-Georgia (Charlotte)
3-Kentucky vs 14-Central Florida (Washington)
6-Xavier vs 11-Cleveland State (Washington)

The Midwest Regional winner faces off against the South Regional winner ... and the East Regional champ and West Regional champ face off.

Now, I'm not a huge fan of the RPI, but the Selection Committee seems to love it. The question is, would we have a better tournament like this instead of having a Selection Committee do it ... and using all those automatic bids?

Observations From Carolina-Duke

North Carolina beat Duke last night to claim the ACC regular season championship. Quite a game to watch.

THE RIVALRY: Well, below is a nice list of why this is the best college hoops rivalry ... and may be the best collegiate rivalry. The schools are 8 miles apart. One is a private school; the other a public school. One is filled with out-of-staters; one is mainly in-state students. One plays in a small bandbox that is hell on opponents; another plays in the ACC's largest arena that is hell on opponents. One has the Crazies, the other has the Wine and Cheese Crowd (though it sure didn't sound very winey or cheesey last night).

Not to mention the players. There are lots of guys that were recruited heavily by both schools. Harrison Barnes was all but sealed to go to Duke before Carolina swooped in and got him. Danny Ferry was a Tar Heel fan but signed on to Duke. There are many, many others ... including next year's freshman sensation Austin Rivers who both Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski went after (Coach K won).

And remember in high school when you might run into your rivals at McDonald's or the mall or something? Same thing happens here. They are around each other all the time.

WHAT'S AT STAKE: Last night was the sixth time the outright ACC regular season championship game down to the final game between these two teams. Of the 58 seasons of ACC basketball, North Carolina has won at least a share of the regular season title 28 times. Duke has 19 titles. Only twice (2001, 1979) have both schools tied each other for the ACC crown. Still, that means 45 of the 58 ACC championships have been won by UNC, Duke or both. The last school outside of these two to win an outright ACC championship was Wake Forest in 2003 (Virginia and Maryland have each shared an ACC crown in that time).

PRIME TIME: This was the first time CBS showed a regular season game in primtime.

REMEMBER DECEMBER?: What made this matchup all the more unlikely was how these teams were perceived in December. UNC was, at one point, 4-3 and looked very disjointed. Heck, back in January, they were spanked by lowly Georgia Tech by 20. This team was sitting on the bubble and it looked like last season would repeat itself. The Heels have won 20 of 23, the ACC and now have a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament in the bag and could climb to a No. 1 or No. 2 depending on what happens in the ACC Tournament this week.

As for Duke, there were people saying that this team could go undefeated. They were defending champions, brought back everyone but Brian Zoubek and Jon Scheyer and added Kyrie Irving and Seth Curry. Now, who knows what would've happened had Irving not gotten injured ... but injuries happen in sports and are part of life. Still, Duke was 15-0 and looking like they'd roll into ACC play.

They have been 12-4 ever since, which isn't anything to sneeze at. But for a team that many felt couldn't be beaten, they've looked rather suspect down the stretch.

PLUMLEES: Most overrated Duke recruit(s) since Ricky Price. Two of the brothers are already at Duke with another one on the way. Add all of them together and they could equal one Brian Zoubek.

Duke must have the Plumlees do something in the NCAAs. Last year's team was set up in a similar way (mainly a guard oriented team), but Zoubek ate up a ton of space, was active and a solid defender. These Plumlees aren't that. Neither was Zoubek until his senior season, but that doesn't help Duke out right now.

DEXTER STRICKLAND: Now that Larry Drew II is gone, Strickland has taken on the role as the Tar Heels that makes you most nervous. Strickland forces shots, drives into traffic and seems to go against the offense at times. But he makes some of those shots and had the big dunk at the end of the game that put the nail in Duke's coffin.

NOLAN SMITH: He should unanimously be the ACC Player of the Year. To see his basketball maturity over the past four years is stunning.

ROY WILLIAMS: Ol' Roy has to win the ACC Coach of the Year award. Guiding this team to an ACC title is one thing, but to do it after you lost a lottery pick (Ed Davis), two transfers (Travis Wear, David Wear) and having another kicked off the team (Will Graves). He then had to deal with Larry Drew II quitting on the team in the middle of the ACC season and losing Reggie Bullock to a knee injury. They now only have 8 scholarship athletes playing right now and their backup power forward is 6-4 Justin Watts. To pull this off is one of Roy's biggest acheivements.

NEXT WEEK: All this is fine and dandy, but we may get to do it all over again next week ... and a No. 1 seed could be on the line.

68 Team Tournament Already Seems Like a Bad Idea

We have yet to see what the first 68-team NCAA Tournament will look like, but I'm already hating it.

First off, do you need to have your bracket filled out by Tuesday morning? Or are we throwing out those "play in games"?

Second off, look at these extra teams that are getting in. Needless to say, I'm unimpressed.

In Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, he has as his "last four in" as Colorado, Virginia Tech, Boston College and Michigan State. Really, none of those teams have done anything to wow you into believing they could scare anyone in the tournament. And remember that those teams are on pins and needles ... and if they fall out of favor, teams like Alabama, Georgia, USC and Missouri State are next in line. Again, unimpressive.

All of this makes me think THANK GOD THEY DIDN'T EXPAND TO 96 TEAMS!! Imagine if we had to fine 18 more teams to put into this tournament. Then we could look forward to adding teams like East Tennessee State, Duquesne, Hofstra, James Madison, Valparasio, New Mexico, Miami-FL and California. It would be insanely watered down.

I know we live in this crazy time where "everyone needs to be involved" and we hand out ribbons and trophies just for competing. We're not 5 years old anymore and you can tell these kids that they aren't good enough to be in the tournament ... so they aren't. I'm not saying to go back to the good ol' days and making only the champion of the conference as the lone representative in the tournament, but there is an opportunity for those bubble teams to show their worth. Early losses doesn't show me that you necessarily belong in the tournament.

It's stupid.

Bengals Are Right To Call Carson Palmer's Bluff

Here is something I thought I'd never type: the Cincinnati Bengals front office (all three people) are doing the right thing when it comes to the Carson Palmer situation.

To get you caught up, Carson Palmer wants out of Cincinnati so badly that he is threatening to retire if the team doesn't trade him. The Bengals' public stance is they are not going to deal Palmer and that he's their quarterback.

While that may frustrate Bengals fans, they are doing the right thing.

That doesn't mean they can never trade him. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that the Bengals would be smart to not cave into Palmer's demands right now and looking desperate. If they were aggressively looking to deal him now, not only would it open the floodgates for any other moody Bengal to write his own ticket out of town, but the Bengals lose trade leverage.

Sitting on this situation would be best.

Cincinnati can look for deals behind the scenes. There are plenty of teams in need of a quarterback (Vikings, Cardinals, Redskins, Titans, Niners, Seahawks, Panthers, Dolphins and Bills) and not that many names out there to be had. Several of those teams would be interested. Deal him for something of worth.

Now if a deal can't be done, then fine. Just sit on him. If he quits, he quits. That would mean your highest paid player doesn't want his money ... which looks good to the cheap Bengals. I know that the team gets nothing back in terms of talent, but letting him walk could pay off down the road.

I mean, if the Bengals panic and deal Palmer ... then what do you think Chad Ochocinco will do? If the Bengals don't give in to their franchise quarterback, everyone else knows they have a slim shot to work their way out.

Plus Bengal fans must remind themselves that there is some labor discord out there. If the lockout extends deep into the summer, then (a) you aren't even able to make trades, (b) another team would most likely pass on a deal since they'd have limited time to work Palmer into their playbood and (c) the Bengals would have a tough time getting their new QB ready.

To me, it makes sense for the Bengals to play this game of chicken with Palmer. After all, they have a lot less to lose.