Missouri to SEC: Now The Big East Needs To Worry

One of the huge dominos in the conference expansion may be close to falling. Missouri is planning on applying to the SEC and the conference reportedly has the votes to admit them in. This is huge news that will impact the entire country.

What does this mean?

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE. The SEC has 14 teams now, the same as the ACC. It looks as if the conference will stop at that number. All there is to do now is move one of the West teams to the East and figure out the scheduling. The team most likely to move would be Auburn, which would be quite interesting. Splitting Bama and Auburn could mean the two teams meet in the SEC title game.

SEC EAST: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC WEST: Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Missouri, Texas A&M

BIG XII CONFERENCE. Now the Big XII is down to 9 teams again. They will lose A&M and Missouri and gain TCU. The league and the members want to get back to 12 teams ... meaning they must find three schools to join in. Since BYU isn't interested anymore (though the Big XII should revisit), the plan is to head east. Louisville, West Virginia and, possibly, Cincinnati should be on the list. Boise State and Air Force could be, but the MWC-CUSA merger may stop all that (more on that later).

BIG XII NORTH: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, West Virginia
BIG XII SOUTH: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech.

BIG EAST. In short, done. With Missouri leaving the Big XII, the Big XII will look to loot the Big East for three teams. Right now, only six schools play football in that conference. If the Big XII rips half of that, only three remain: Rutgers, UConn and South Florida. UConn would then beg the ACC to let them in. Either way, the Big East football conference could be done. The Mountain West-Conference USA merger has kept those schools thinking twice about moving to the Big East. A raid by the Big XII would completely scare those schools off. Seriously, they'd have a better chance gaining a BCS berth with the MWC-CUSA merger than a rebuilt Big East.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE. While the ACC isn't in the mood to expand, if the opportunity to snag Notre Dame happens they will jump all over it. Then they will add UConn to be the 16th member. If Notre Dame gets scared into joining a conference, the ACC would be the most likely landing spot.

ACC NORTH: Boston College, Connecticut, Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
ACC SOUTH: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest

MOUNTAIN WEST AND CONFERENCE USA. In reality, neither conference is now all that concerned with being looted. For those who don't know, the MWC and C-USA have agreed to have a football alignment where the champs from both conferences will play to create a sort-of champion. They think this could entice the BCS to consider the winner to be BCS bowl worthy. It could be. It probably won't be. But it would be closer than anything the Big East could offer.

Sure, East Carolina and a few other schools could bolt for the Big East but it won't bother these conferences too much ... as long as Boise State sits still.

BIG TEN AND PAC-12. It seems as if both leagues are cool with the memberships they have. Sure, Rutgers is out there and attractive to the Big Ten but unless they can find someone to join them (and under this plan, they don't) I don't see them making any move.

NFL May Need NBA-Style Lottery System

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts. This game could help shape these franchises for the next decade. The loser could be in the driver's seat to the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and be able to select one Andrew Luck.

Sure, it is only October but this is a huge game in the race for Luck.

Luck is everyone's choice to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft. Even if the Colts, who just re-signed Peyton Manning to a zillion dollar deal, would take Luck first overall and develop him behind the legend ... a-la Aaron Rodgers.

With the wealth of really bad teams this year, we could see quite an interesting dynamic as the season winds down. Could teams really tank their last few games in order to gain that top pick and, therefore, Luck? Do you think that would really happen? It just may.

Remember, this is the new NFL where the top pick can't demand a huge contract he hasn't earned. The top pick scared everyone off before since you could be tied into a bust for a long time (see: Jamarcus Russell). So drafting Luck for a relatively small contract makes him even more attractive. Plus in a league that is so pass heavy right now, getting a franchise quarterback is quite a big deal.

Could we see the Colts, Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings, Rams, Jaguars, Broncos or Seahawks tank games down the stretch to get a shot at Luck? Maybe. We could even see a team like the Carolina Panthers tank games in order to get the No. 1 pick and make a huge deal to someone who falls in love with Luck.

If we see this, the NFL may need to look at an NBA-style lottery. In the NBA, teams were tanking games in order to get the No. 1 pick. It works since the No. 1 pick in the NBA usually changes the entire dynamic of a franchise (Kareem, Magic, Shaq, LeBron, etc).

While that isn't always the case in the NFL, getting a perceived franchise quarterback is what teams are looking for. In the last 10 drafts, 8 of the top overall picks were QBs (and 10 of the last 13). While not all those guys became stars (Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Tim Couch) there have been some big picks (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford).

Since the NBA has used the lottery, the team with the worst record in the league has won the top selection just 3 out of 27 times. Quite amazing. While tanking does give you a better chance at getting the top pick, it doesn't guarantee squat. Imagine if that happened in the NFL.

There may have to be some changes to what the NBA does. In the NBA, all non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery. That's only 14 out of 30 teams. The NFL has 20 out of 32 teams miss the postseason. That's too many teams to put in the lottery. Maybe all teams with losing records? Maybe just the bottom 10 teams? Who knows, but the NFL may need to implement something to keep from watching teams rob their fans by tanking games.

TCU to Big XII: Big XII's Shoots First Against Big East

The Big XII has invited TCU to join their conference and the school is reportedly ready to accept. That means that TCU, who is currently in the Mountain West Conference and were set to join the Big East conference in 2012, will be moving yet again.

It is huge for both TCU and the Big XII. For TCU, they still get to be in a BCS conference and one that looks like it should live on after all this craziness ends. They get to rejoin old Southwest Conference rivalries with Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor. Also, it would keep TCU from having to join a Big East conference that geographically could cripple other sports (especially basketball).

For the Big XII, they got their 10th member to replace Texas A&M ... who is leaving for the SEC next year. The league would still be stuck at nine if Missouri joins the SEC as well, but it would make the conference healthy enough to go after three more schools.

For the Big East ... well ... they are in deep trouble.

This is the second conference that has come calling for a Big East school. The ACC lured Pittsburgh and Syracuse from the Big East a month ago. UConn has all but fawned over joining the ACC as well and Rutgers could join them. West Virginia is on the short list for the SEC, not to mention the Big XII could come calling for them as well.

It could get worse. If Missouri indeed does leave for the SEC, the Big XII would want to add three more schools to their conference. BYU is one, but Louisville and West Virginia could be others (Cincinnati falls in there as well). That would all but kill the Big East as a football conference.

This is quite a move considering what has happened in the last several weeks.

In the Great Expansion Race, both the Big East and Big XII seemed to be on the last legs. Once the Pac-10-12-16 decided to stay put at 12 members, that kept the Big XII intact (for now). When both conferences were facing extinction, the two league got together and were talking about a "merger". By "merger", the stronger conference would gobble up the lesser one. Up until the Pac-12's decision, it was thought that Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State would join the Big East ... which TCU was set to be a member of. Now the Big XII is a bit stronger and they could come after two or three Big East schools to get to the XII in Big XII.

The fact that the Big XII went ahead and did this is both cold and a smart decision. This puts the ball back in the Big XII's court and makes it more likely the conference will survive this mess. It pretty much writes the obituary for the Big East as well.

The Big East, right now, is left with UConn, Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida. Pittsburgh, Syracuse and TCU have left. UConn and Rutgers would love to leave to join the ACC (UConn is more likely to be invited). West Virginia would leave in a heartbeat for the SEC or Big XII. Louisville will also most likely be asked to leave for the Big XII.

While the Big East could conceivably rebuild around Cincinnati, South Florida, Villanova (who is thinking about stepping up to FBS status) and any other schools that stick around, their status as a BCS conference would probably be over. They'd have to raid Conference USA, MAC and/or the Sun Belt to even form a league. And adding East Carolina, Memphis and Marshall just doesn't bring sexy back to the conference. The reality could be that ECU, Memphis and Marshall wouldn't be that interested in moving to a broken Big East even for the basketball prestige. You may just see Cincinnati and South Florida join the MAC or C-USA in football and stay in the Big East for basketball.

The fact that TCU bailed on the Big East without ever playing a game as a member of that conference says it all.

The Big East Needs To Shut Its Mouth And Remember The Past

Boo-hoo to the Big East. Boo-hoo.

Hypocrites.

With the news that Syracuse and Pittsburgh are leaving the Big East conference ... I'm sorry , BIG EAST Conference ... for the ACC, all the Big East honks are upset. "They're raiding us again!" "The ACC has no respect for our league!" "Cuse and Pitt are greedy!" Blah blah blah.

We heard it all before, nearly a decade ago, when Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College all left the Big East for the ACC. The move was met with lawsuits (which included both Va Tech and BC ... who later withdrew when they found out it was them, not Syracuse, that were getting to go to the ACC). The Big East cried and cried and cried and cried.

They said it was the end of the Big East as we know it. They said that it couldn't survive. Cried and cried and cried.

When they wiped their tears, they decided to, ya know, do the EXACT SAME THING to Conference USA. They took Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida ... as well as basketball schools DePaul and Marquette. Those, along with Memphis, were the premiere programs in the C-USA. The C-USA had to then raid the WAC to replace those schools.

I know, I know, the Big East had to do that to survive as a conference. I did that. But, wait, why would the Big East worry about Miami or Virginia Tech leaving their conference?

Remember that the Big East added Miami in the early 1990s so they could form a football conference. Remember that the Big East was a basketball-only league whose football teams played Division I-AA ball. Heck, Miami didn't even have a hoops team for quite some time until 1985.

Virginia Tech? They were also added to the league in 1991 (for football only. In 2000, they were invited for all sports). They also added Rutgers and West Virginia to create this football league. Those schools came from the Atlantic 10 or elsewhere.

Why would the Big East do this? Hmmmm. Why would they form a football conference when only Syracuse, Boston College and Pitt were the only schools with a Division I football program? Hmmmm.

Oh, and Pitt joined the Big East in 1982. Ya know, expansion. Pitt was playing in the Eastern Eight conference. That's now known as the Atlantic 10.

Yeah, the BIG EAST loves picking on the Atlantic 10.

Know your roll.

UConn Wants Into ACC

Syracuse and Pittsburgh on their way to the ACC, another Big East school wants to move with them. UConn is aggressively trying to get into the ACC.

It makes sense for everyone involved. For UConn, they'd jump from the sinking Big East ship and get their name out there before the ACC attempts to go after, say, Texas and move away from the coast. They'd stay in a BCS conference in a football league that they can still compete in.

For the ACC, it adds a huge market -- New York City -- to the mix. With Syracuse already on board and Rutgers on the radar, the ACC would be the conference most associated to the Tri-State area. It would add another elite basketball program that would unquestionably make the ACC the best hoops conference again. UNC, Duke, Syracuse, UConn and Pitt??? Not too shabby. That would make UNC, Duke, NC State, Maryland, Syracuse and UConn have a combined 16 NCAA tournament championships between them.

The ACC would also further bridge the geographical gap that currently exists between Maryland and Boston College ... the conference's two northern-most schools. Adding UConn to Syracuse and Pitt would certainly do that.

This would also make the ACC the elite conference on the eastern seaboard. They would own the markets of Boston, New York, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami and Tampa. It would be THE conference of New England, New York, Virginia/Maryland, the Carolinas and split with Georgia and Florida (of the three powers in Florida, the ACC would house two of the schools).

UConn Wants Into The ACC

Syracuse and Pittsburgh on their way to the ACC, another Big East school wants to move with them. UConn is aggressively trying to get into the ACC.

It makes sense for everyone involved. For UConn, they'd jump from the sinking Big East ship and get their name out there before the ACC attempts to go after, say, Texas and move away from the coast. They'd stay in a BCS conference in a football league that they can still compete in.

For the ACC, it adds a huge market -- New York City -- to the mix. With Syracuse already on board and Rutgers on the radar, the ACC would be the conference most associated to the Tri-State area. It would add another elite basketball program that would unquestionably make the ACC the best hoops conference again. UNC, Duke, Syracuse, UConn and Pitt??? Not too shabby. That would make UNC, Duke, NC State, Maryland, Syracuse and UConn have a combined 16 NCAA tournament championships between them.

The ACC would also further bridge the geographical gap that currently exists between Maryland and Boston College ... the conference's two northern-most schools. Adding UConn to Syracuse and Pitt would certainly do that.

This would also make the ACC the elite conference on the eastern seaboard. They would own the markets of Boston, New York, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami and Tampa. It would be THE conference of New England, New York, Virginia/Maryland, the Carolinas and split with Georgia and Florida (of the three powers in Florida, the ACC would house two of the schools).

What Would Be Best For Big East and Big XII Schools?

Okay, with word that Syracuse and Pittsburgh have applied to become a member of the ACC, it all but signals the end of either the Big East or Big XII. The first punch has been thrown and the Big East is stumbling. The Big XII is waiting on what Oklahoma is going to do ... and with the ACC making their move it is all but certain that the Big XII is in trouble.

So what should the members of each conference do? Let's start with the Big East:

CONNECTICUT: UConn is in an enviable position. With their proximity to New York City, their recent BCS bowl appearance and their top level basketball program, the Huskies will be highly sought after and could pick where they want to go instead of settling. The Big Ten could come calling (they are going to have to find 4 teams somewhere to form their super-conference). The ACC most certainly will. Money-wise, it makes sense to go to the Big Ten, but for the program, the ACC fits better.

WEST VIRGINIA: If the SEC is adding a 14th member, West Virginia should top their list. This recent move by Pitt and Syracuse should move this along.

RUTGERS: Despite not really being a elite program in either football or basketball, Rutgers will be sought after by both the Big Ten and ACC. They fit both conference's academic priorities and bring the NYC crowd with them. I think the Big Ten wins out if they do decide to expand. If not, they will be an ACC school.

LOUISVILLE: L'ville is in a real interesting situation. I could see the ACC trying to lure them in, along with UConn, to join their league. L'ville has the hoops pedigree that would really mesh with the ACC and a, at times, decent football program. I doubt the Big Ten would be interested, but there's a chance. If the ACC doesn't come calling, Louisville could be forced to stay in the Big East and be in the same boat as South Florida (see below).

SOUTH FLORIDA: USF is in a tough spot. No one really needs them at all. The ACC and SEC already have members in Florida and I doubt the Big Ten is interested (though they could be). The Bulls may have to hope the Big East rebuilds using scraps from other conferences (some Big XII leftovers, MAC and C-USA).

CINCINNATI: The Bearcats are in the same boat. The Big Ten won't want them for several reasons and between them, Rutgers and Louisville, they are the ACC's last choice. If no ACC invite happens, Cincy may have to be part of a rebuilt Big East.

TCU: Awwww man! TCU finally made it to the big time by agreeing to join the Big East in 2012. However, if the Big East gets slammed during realignment then they should lose their BCS standing. Now TCU is in complete limbo. They can't crawl back to the Mountain West, can they? Anyone else could come calling. The SEC could try to lure them in to get a partner for Texas A&M, though that would hurt the Aggies program by having a second Texas school. The Pac-12 could be interested if Texas and Texas Tech aren't coming. I think the Big Ten would be the most interesting option. They fit the conference's academic profile and would get the Big Ten into Texas.

NOTRE DAME: Now, this isn't that much of a big deal to the Irish. If Notre Dame does decide to become a member of a conference football-wise, the Big Ten makes all the sense in the world. But Notre Dame likes their independent status and it feels stronger than ever about that. So it could stay in the Big East as a non-football member and still enjoy what will be a decent hoops conference (Georgetown, St. John's, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Villanova and Seton Hall with possibly Louisville and/or Cincinnati staying). Notre Dame stays.

Now, let's look at what the Big XII schools may end up doing.

OKLAHOMA: Barring something unforseen, the Sooners are heading to the Pac-12/14/16. With the Big XII so shaky, Oklahoma is in the driver's seat to create their own destiny.

OKLAHOMA STATE: They will go with Oklahoma.

TEXAS: The Horns would rather not go west, but they may end up having to if they want to stay in a conference. Though they were talking with the ACC, it seems that the ACC is going in a different direction. The SEC would probably not happen with the bad blood with Texas A&M. I think Texas' best move would be stay independent in football and join the Big East in basketball, ala Notre Dame. If they don't think they could pull that off, they will be joining the Oklahoma schools in the Pac-16.

TEXAS TECH: Tech sure hopes so, and they would benefit by joining them. If Texas doesn't do that, Tech could be in some trouble. The Pac-16 could still be interested, but it could be unlikely. The SEC could be interested if they want to get another Texas team. Tech is truly up in the air.

MISSOURI: The Tigers are actually in a good spot. They fit in both the SEC and Big Ten and both should inquire about them. They'd make more sense in the Big Ten, though the prestige of the SEC would be too much to pass up.

KANSAS: Imagine the Jayhawks basketball program having nowhere to go. The Big Ten may add them, though it wouldn't want K State tagging along. If the Big Ten is scrambling to add a 16th team, they may have to. The SEC probably ain't happening. Kansas could just join that revamped Big East. If not, the Mountain West may be the way to go.

KANSAS STATE: K State is hoping they get to go where Kansas goes. That would most likely mean the new Big East, though that isn't a given. None of the super conferences are all that interested in the Wildcats. They could see if the Mountain West or WAC could use them.

BAYLOR: Baylor, along with Iowa State, has already asked the Big East to take a look at them if they are trying to rebuild their football league. That could happen, despite the want for Iowa State, just so they can field a football conference and not watch Louisville, Cincinnati and TCU leave. If not, the Mountain West would be the best bet.

IOWA STATE: Sorry to say this, but no one wants Iowa State. The Big East could lob them a call just so they can have a football conference. The Mountain West could be interested if they want to get to a 12-16 team league.

This all should mean the Big XII is done. Unless Oklahoma and Texas decide to stick it out (which doesn't seem likely), this conference is gone. The extras will most likely merge with the Big East and form a loose football conference yet keep their lofty basketball league. A football conference could look like this: Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville and South Florida with the league looking to add someone else. Temple? Marshall? East Carolina? Someone will jump at it. The basketball league would be interesting as well:

EAST: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, South Florida, St. John's, Villanova, Temple/Marshall, ECU
WEST: Baylor, Cincinnati, DePaul, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Marquette